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AAP has done it again. Now what, go National?

Now that Aam Admi Party has done it again, there is a clamour from its base to go national.

AAP has got three key things going in its favor 1. Anti-corruption plank 2.An acceptable/inclusive nationalism which acknowledges majority/minority sentiments 3. DELIVERY on development/bread and butter issues (bijli, paani, buses and schools).

Apart from the anti-corruption plank which no other party can claim in India today, AAP has borrowed from the right (nationalism) and the left ( bijli, pani) and ideas from other political parties to create a hybrid populist political model that works for AAP.

AAP has proved that the success model is repeatable in Delhi, has won thrice in a row.

There is definitely the need for a strong leader who can claim the national stage and provide an alternative to the divisive and regressive politics that the BJP is propagating.

But can the Delhi model be replicated? This where the question of whether a similar demographic in say Bihar/UP would prioritize economic message over caste/ religion come up. An underlying sentiment is class/economic component of casteism, with lower classes being disproportionately affected by economic inequities.

BJP’s attempt to highlight “freebies” as not benefiting the upper middle class was an attempt to drive a wedge between its tax paying upper middle class voters and AAP’s base of lower middle class voters.

In a way caste could still stay relevant/manageable with AAP fielding candidates from appropriate castes. Would be interesting see what having a “caste calculator” like Prasanth Kishor with Bihar experience on their side would do. His recommendation could most likely be the easy path, i.e form alliances with regional parties, which Kejriwal is bound to reject to maintain ideological purity of AAP.

BTW talking of other parties, and calculators, one needs to think of the scenario where the Congress decided to seriously contest the Delhi elections making it a triangular fight. IMO Congress deliberately and strategically, took one for the anti-BJP coalition. The Congress does not see AAP as a national threat at this time.  

Quality of candidates i.e finding ones who believe in the AAP’s non-corrupt mission could be a concern too. AAP has already lost several leaders in the last two election cycles as they jumped ship for better prospects.

The other key question is the scalability of the model. Scaling this tiny pilot project successful in Delhi (2 crore electorate) to a 10 crore Bihar or a 20 crore UP would involve an incredible amount of capacity building of party infrastructure/ organization coupled with intense visibility/communication effort outside of Social Media. Ground game (boots on the ground volunteer force) is critical as well and I think that would be a major challenge for AAP.

Financing all this is not going to be easy either. Fast tracking the marketing by bankrolling with corporate funding is the option that BJP utilized with Gujarat model. But that is not exactly what AAP stands for and would do irreparable damage to the brand, and faith in politicians forever and kill the movement.

 Otherwise here is a good product, an effective messenger and a great message. However as a realist, I would tamp down the exuberance of the well-meaning AAP volunteers who are expecting too much too soon.

 

A pragmatic approach may be to target one large state with low development index by leveraging the story of a Delhi Model of development. Other option would be to try municipal/corporation election in select states to keep the volunteers engaged and excited.

A slow and steady organic growth is what may be prudent if the party has to maintain its ideological purity and maintain quality control of candidates.

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